What If Automating AI R&D Triggers an Intelligence Explosion?
Chan, A., Winter, C., Barto, A., Pachocki, J., Hinton, G., Horvitz, E., Bengio, Y., Song, D., Clark, J., Greaves, H., Korinek, A., Manning, S.
Chan, A. et al. - Centre for the Governance of AI, 2026-09-28
Abstract
AI now plays a major role in building AI. Preliminary evidence suggests this could radically accelerate AI progress in an “intelligence explosion,” where years of AI progress are compressed into months or less. Such an acceleration could be the most consequential technological development in history. Policymakers, including heads of government, urgently need to understand and prepare for this possibility. AI is rapidly automating AI research and development (R&D). As of August 2026, Anthropic reported AI systems completing 26% of internal AI R&D work with only high-level supervision, compared to just 1% five months earlier. As of September 2026, OpenAI reported systems routinely completing R&D tasks that would take days for staff. Based on benchmark trends and other evidence, some experts think that AI R&D could be fully automated within the next few years.