Predictive Policing
AI systems that analyze data to predict where crimes may occur or who may commit or be victims of crimes.
Definition
Predictive Policing refers to AI systems used by law enforcement to analyze historical crime data, demographics, and other information to predict where crimes are likely to occur (place-based) or who may be involved in criminal activity (person-based).
EU AI Act Classification: Predictive policing systems face significant restrictions:
- Prohibited (Article 5(1)(d)): AI systems that assess the risk of natural persons committing criminal offences solely based on profiling or personality traits—this effectively prohibits person-based predictive policing
- High-Risk (Annex III, 6(d)): Polygraphs and similar tools to detect deception or assess reliability during law enforcement investigations
Key Regulatory Concerns:
- Discrimination: Systems may perpetuate historical biases in policing data
- Presumption of innocence: Targeting individuals based on predicted future behavior
- Self-fulfilling prophecy: Increased policing in predicted areas creates more arrests
- Transparency: Often proprietary systems with limited explainability
Jurisdictional Status:
- EU: Person-based predictive policing prohibited; place-based may be high-risk
- US: No federal ban; some cities have restricted or abandoned programs (Santa Cruz, Los Angeles)
- UK: Some programs discontinued; data protection concerns under UK GDPR
Related concepts: Profiling, Social Scoring, Algorithmic Discrimination, Fundamental Rights Impact Assessment
Sources
- •EU AI Act Annex III
- •Civil Rights Concerns
Related Terms
Profiling
Automated processing of personal data to analyze or predict aspects of an individual's characteristics or behavior....
Social Scoring
AI systems that evaluate or rank people by social behaviour or personal traits and produce scores that cause unfair, disproportionate, or unrelated negative treatment....
Algorithmic Discrimination
Unfair or unlawful differential treatment or impact caused by an AI or algorithmic system against individuals or groups, often on protected characteristics....
Fundamental Rights Impact Assessment
Evaluation of AI system's potential impact on human rights before deployment....